Collective Intelligence’s Kevin McDermott and FSG principal Peter Kennedy make the case for adopting scenario analysis as a tool for fostering innovative thinking. Their article, “Overcoming Opportunity Blindness and Path Dependence: How to Think Your Way to Multiple Futures,” appeared in the May 2011 issue of InnovationManagement. Drawing deeply on their consulting experiences and observations, Kevin and Peter maintain that “strategic confidence” is a critical success factor in a world of disruptive and unpredictable change. Only by rehearsing a range of plausible alternative futures—scenarios—can strategic confidence in such an unpredictable world be built.
