Airline Scenarios: American-US Airways
Normally we are into alternative scenarios. But airlines seem to be stuck in one scenario.
Strategy
400-Word Scenario #10: Fiscal Ramp to Prosperity
February 14, 2013 [Wolf News/MSDNC]: In a Valentine’s Day miracle, Congress and the administration today reached a long-term deal on the debt ceiling, taxes, and fiscal reform,
A Scenario Planning Bulletin
Hot Breaking News on the Fiscal Cliff!
Idea-less in Gaza
Now that the happy horserace of the election is over, on to some grimmer scenarios.
Scenario Planning, Hurricane Sandy, and Relationships
This has been a ridiculously busy and stressful week for three of our recent scenario-based strategic planning clients: the United States Coast Guard, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
Nate Silver and Data-Recency Bias
One more thought provoked by Nate Silver’s thought-provoking The Signal and the Noise.
Why Scenario-Based Planning Beats Prediction
Scenario consultants have an advantage over single-point forecasters like Nate Silver: we’re not restricted to single point forecasts.
Foxy Hedgehogs: “The Signal and the Noise”
Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise makes a darned good case for scenario-based strategic planning…
Experts Are the Worst Forecasters
After decades of trying to help clients anticipate the widest range of plausible possible future events, the following quote rings quite true to us: “Those who know more forecast very slightly better than those who know less. But those with the most knowledge are often least reliable.”
Scenario Planning and Truth
The essential value of scenario planning is not just about constructing cool futuristic stories to “get the client thinking outside the box.”