Multiple Alternative Future Scenarios Wanted
What to do when Nobel-winning economists disagree? Create alternative scenarios, of course.
Scenarios
Scenarios for the Future of Medicine
For almost two years, FSG has been exploring the future of medicine and medical education, in support of the administration and board of the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME). As noted previously in these pages, FSG developed a set of four ‘future of medicine’ scenarios and facilitated a series of scenario-planning workshops to help guide ACGME strategic decisions at a time of significant uncertainty.
A Most Ironic Scenario
Some perspective from 93 years ago on Greece threatening not to pay back its monstrous debt to German and other banks.
Future Anti-Vaccinators
Opposition to proven preventive measures is not a left-right issue – and metaphorically, it also affects a lot of businesses.
In the past few days, a mighty attempt has been made by various Media Creatures to shoehorn a controversy over a measles outbreak and non-vaccination of children into yet another left-right bipolar fight.
How We Might Not Have Gotten to Now
Steven Johnson’s How We Got to Now – and why we might not get to Then.
Some FAQs about Scenario Planning
We often get questions about how we do scenario planning and what clients get out of their investment. Here are our answers to some frequently asked questions.
Unknown Unknowns, Scenarios and Strategic Judgment
Errol Morris’s documentary on Donald Rumsfeld is in the theatres. The film, plus a companion four-part series on the former secretary of defense in the The New York Times, raises interesting questions about knowledge, uncertainty and corporate strategy.
Scenario Perspectives on California Drought
Is the current California drought about climate change or some periodically recurring rainfall shortage? The experts don't agree. Which is why planners affected by this situation should rigorously think through multiple scenarios — and their implications.
US Consumer Scenarios: How Are We Doing?
The economy in 2014 is certainly on a much stronger footing than it was a few years ago, but is this as good as it will get for the U.S. consumer?
Scenario Planning Best Practices
The 3.0 edition of Creating and Sustaining Strategic Intent in the U.S. Coast Guard has now been released. FSG worked with the Coast Guard in developing the content and case studies for the publication.