Scenario Planning: Warren Buffett, Gottfried von Leibniz, Blaise Pascal, and Peter Bernstein
Why these people would think scenario planning was awesome.
Risk
Coastal Reconstruction Scenario Planning: Superstorm Sandy and the Retreat Option
Sometimes leaders do not have the luxury of taking the long view; sometimes high-impact events compel hard decisions to be made now.
Idea-less in Gaza
Now that the happy horserace of the election is over, on to some grimmer scenarios.
Scenario Planning, Hurricane Sandy, and Relationships
This has been a ridiculously busy and stressful week for three of our recent scenario-based strategic planning clients: the United States Coast Guard, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
Nate Silver and Data-Recency Bias
One more thought provoked by Nate Silver’s thought-provoking The Signal and the Noise.
Why Scenario-Based Planning Beats Prediction
Scenario consultants have an advantage over single-point forecasters like Nate Silver: we’re not restricted to single point forecasts.
Foxy Hedgehogs: “The Signal and the Noise”
Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise makes a darned good case for scenario-based strategic planning…
400-Word Scenario #2: The Good Old Days of Gun Violence
July 21, 2042 (Fox/MSNBC News): The nation reacted with a mix of horror, outrage, calls for new laws, and debate over the Second Amendment as the scale of the latest mass murder came into focus over the past two days.
400-Word Scenario #1: Clawback World
Scenario planning requires imagination. Everyone likes to pretend that imagination is fun and games. But really, imagination is often very difficult and painful, because it requires us not just to take incremental steps along a pre-existing path, but to make up an entirely different path.
We’re Doomed! No, We’re Saved! Euro Scenarios
Scenario consulting has rarely had a better promotional material than Europe has been pumping out the past year or so. Uncertainty abounds.
Sunday’s election in Greece has once again caused the Very Serious People in Europe to breathe a sigh of relief. “New Democracy, the mainline conservative party that wants to stay in the euro, won the election and can form a government! We’re saved!”