Hopeful 2023 Scenario Bits
Happy Holidays!
Random Thoughts
Scenario Planning and Alternative Futures
Uncluttering the jargon that describes what we do.
This Never Happened
Future scenarios require a past, because there's no data about the future.
New Year Scenario Irony Alert
2015 is starting out as a year of unexpected paradoxes and amusing contradictions.
A Purely Cognitive Argument Against “Enhanced Interrogation Techniques”
Why torture almost certainly can't work in the real world.
ISIS, Hitler, Orwell
A war with no “good” side.
The Valley of the Shadow
WIll the great institutions of society learn how to live with transparency before transparency destroys them?
De Rerum Mutandorum
Institutions change faster and more completely than we think. An example from some recent reading: Harvard University.
400-Word Scenario #5: Revenge of the Real?
The Actual has its revenge upon the Virtual…
400-Word Scenario #1: Clawback World
Scenario planning requires imagination. Everyone likes to pretend that imagination is fun and games. But really, imagination is often very difficult and painful, because it requires us not just to take incremental steps along a pre-existing path, but to make up an entirely different path.