“The Past is the Only Thing We Know”
The iconoclastic historian John Lukacs, who died this week, was skeptical of the value of prognostication. So is FSG.
Perils of Prognostication
A Hypothesis about Working-Class Rage
Why are ordinary people revolting? Maybe…prediction?
The Wrong Way to Use History
There have been a lot of historical analogies being thrown around lately.
The presidency of Donald Trump has caused a lot of smart people (and a lot of less-well-educated ones) to dig up stuff from the past that they see as relevant to our current situation – and to where we may be headed in the near future.
Hate to Say We Told You So…
But we told you so.
Nate Silver Is A Rigged System
It's not that he's wrong. It's that Presidential elections are not baseball.
Undecideds have decided. Game over?
There’s actually less volatility in the polls than you might think.
Don’t fight the future, whatever it turns out to be
The highest barrier to managing strategic change is often the very success of today’s business model.
Article on Preparing for Acquisitions – and Scenarios
An article in Acquisitions International by Joseph Feldman has a bit to say about using scenario planning in acquisitions. The article (see link) begins on p. 13.
This Never Happened
Future scenarios require a past, because there's no data about the future.
Future Anti-Vaccinators
Opposition to proven preventive measures is not a left-right issue – and metaphorically, it also affects a lot of businesses.
In the past few days, a mighty attempt has been made by various Media Creatures to shoehorn a controversy over a measles outbreak and non-vaccination of children into yet another left-right bipolar fight.