The complex puzzle of US population scenarios
Uncertainty around immigration, birthrates, the economy and even the environment challenge us to think about not one but multiple US population scenarios.
Perils of Prognostication
Don’t Expect the Future to be Rational
Even supposedly stable systems can be unpredictable — often because human behavior makes them that way.
Harari’s Stumble on the Future
Even brilliant authors tend to underestimate the complexity of the future.
Foresight, Disaster, and Texas
When it comes to disaster preparedness, no one comes out looking all that good.
Biden, Fauci, FDR and Decision Making Under Uncertainty
“It is common sense to take a method and try it: If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.”
2020: An Extraordinary Year. FSG takes stock
May all our futures be brighter in 2021
The post-COVID future is hostile to prediction
It’s about foresight — being ready for whatever the future brings.
Is the Republican Party Doomed by Demographics?
In short, no. Here’s why…
George Floyd and the Arab Spring
Why do particular events capture the public imagination when other almost identical events have failed to do so?
Scenario Planning for a Wicked Problem – Climate Change
Wicked problems resist resolution, but as guest contributor Mark Trexler argues, the uncertainties surrounding climate change should not prevent organizations considering the implications and planning accordingly.