Nate Silver and Data-Recency Bias
One more thought provoked by Nate Silver’s thought-provoking The Signal and the Noise.
New Thinking
Why Scenario-Based Planning Beats Prediction
Scenario consultants have an advantage over single-point forecasters like Nate Silver: we’re not restricted to single point forecasts.
400-Word Scenario #5: Revenge of the Real?
The Actual has its revenge upon the Virtual…
My Team’s Okay, Your Team’s Evil
Jonathan Haidt thinks we’re weird. And as scenario consultants, we have to agree.
400-Word Scenario #3: Retirement Redistribution
A future scenario of mass wealth redistribution to a generation that just did not save enough for retirement.
400-Word Scenario #1: Clawback World
Scenario planning requires imagination. Everyone likes to pretend that imagination is fun and games. But really, imagination is often very difficult and painful, because it requires us not just to take incremental steps along a pre-existing path, but to make up an entirely different path.
Why Scenario Planning Works
Say you have a strategic decision to make. And you have several experts giving you different expert opinions about how you should make that decision. And you are not an expert. What do you do?
Silos, seams and business model reengineering
“Silos” are an inevitable part of any organization; indeed, of any human activity. Even if you confine yourself to individual action, your own mind is thinking within certain categories, usually operating off a mental model that tells you what to expect – “If I do X, then Y will happen” – and what NOT to expect – Z or W or something completely different.
Scenario Planning at FSG
What exactly does the Futures Strategy Group do? We help excellent organizations make better decisions under conditions of uncertainty — mainly through the use of scenarios.
Seven Wrong Things People Think About the Future
All along the untrodden paths of the future I see the footprints of an unseen hand. – Sir Boyle Roche
We who inhabit the Land of Scenariotopia (as a former colleague termed our little realm) think that the best way to predict the future is not to.