2012: Five Inevitable Things That Did Not Happen
Five things that were "bound to occur," away from which we rashly predict the media will moonwalk at warp speed in 2013.
Decision-making and Judgment
A Scenario Planning Bulletin
Hot Breaking News on the Fiscal Cliff!
Coastal Reconstruction Scenario Planning: Superstorm Sandy and the Retreat Option
Sometimes leaders do not have the luxury of taking the long view; sometimes high-impact events compel hard decisions to be made now.
Idea-less in Gaza
Now that the happy horserace of the election is over, on to some grimmer scenarios.
Scenario Planning, Hurricane Sandy, and Relationships
This has been a ridiculously busy and stressful week for three of our recent scenario-based strategic planning clients: the United States Coast Guard, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
Nate Silver and Data-Recency Bias
One more thought provoked by Nate Silver’s thought-provoking The Signal and the Noise.
Why Scenario-Based Planning Beats Prediction
Scenario consultants have an advantage over single-point forecasters like Nate Silver: we’re not restricted to single point forecasts.
Foxy Hedgehogs: “The Signal and the Noise”
Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise makes a darned good case for scenario-based strategic planning…
My Team’s Okay, Your Team’s Evil
Jonathan Haidt thinks we’re weird. And as scenario consultants, we have to agree.
Why Scenario Planning Works
Say you have a strategic decision to make. And you have several experts giving you different expert opinions about how you should make that decision. And you are not an expert. What do you do?