Don’t Expect the Future to be Rational
Even supposedly stable systems can be unpredictable — often because human behavior makes them that way.
Decision-making and Judgment
What is Horizon Scanning? And what does it really tell us about the future?
To do over the horizon scanning, you need to start by seeing what is on the horizon.
Life, Death and Adaptation: How to think about the future
A narrow understanding of a business ecosystem is a constraint on imagination—and growth.
Strategic foresight requires imagination, rigor and (often) courage
Think hard before taking thorny issues off the table.
So where’s my prize for thinking long term?
…and why does the short term so often win out?
Strategic Choice: The Efficiency vs. Resilience Dilemma
The enduring lessons of the Ever Given crisis in the Suez
Foresight, Disaster, and Texas
When it comes to disaster preparedness, no one comes out looking all that good.
Biden, Fauci, FDR and Decision Making Under Uncertainty
“It is common sense to take a method and try it: If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.”
Is the Republican Party Doomed by Demographics?
In short, no. Here’s why…
Scenario Planning to Guide the Digital Journey
Because the strategic context matters.