Are we on the cusp of an “inflection point” ?
What does that mean? And how would we know?
Decision-making and Judgment
Everything is predictable. Not.
Bayesian analysis has its place – but not in real strategy development
Anticipating the Human Factors in a Scenario Planning Experience
At the end of the day, it’s about having the right people committed to the project.
AI Scenarios: Getting Beyond Our Reflex to Imagine the Worst
The complex AI future requires it…
Signals: Is the future of Texas the US’ future?
It’s a complicated question.
Scanning the Horizon: How to Upset Your Settled Opinions
…and manage future risk and uncertainty
Confessions of an Engineer
…in a complex, non-linear world
Thriving in the Uncertainty Space
It’s seldom prudent to wait until the skies clear. They rarely do.
Fifty Shades of Green
There’s climate change. And there’s the equally messy social-political-economic contexts in which it will all play out.
Don’t Expect the Future to be Rational
Even supposedly stable systems can be unpredictable — often because human behavior makes them that way.