Hollywood, Girl Scouts and Cross-Impact Analysis
Why your current success may be your biggest future liability.
Roots of Cross-Impact Analysis in Strategic Foresight
This is the start of a series of FSG strategic foresight blogs on what we call cross-impact analysis. More than a single, discrete methodology, it’s a way of thinking about the future that looks beyond the trends that in the present moment appear all-defining and permanent. In this initial entry FSG senior advisor (and founding …
Remembering Charles Perrottet, 1944-2025
2025 begins for us on a very sad note, since we will have to carry on without a great and useful colleague, friend, and human being, Charles Perrottet, who passed away January 3.
Are we on the cusp of an “inflection point” ?
What does that mean? And how would we know?
Book Review: Nate Silver’s “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything”
Just in time for the coming US presidential election, FSG’s Patrick Marren warns about prediction in situations of strategic consequence in his review of Nate Silver’s On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.
The complex puzzle of US population scenarios
Uncertainty around immigration, birthrates, the economy and even the environment challenge us to think about not one but multiple US population scenarios.
Examining the Matriarchy Scenario
Gains for women, but more evolution than revolution
What Won’t Change in Our Uncertain Future?
Human nature, for one…
Everything is predictable. Not.
Bayesian analysis has its place – but not in real strategy development
Anticipating the Human Factors in a Scenario Planning Experience
At the end of the day, it’s about having the right people committed to the project.