Nate Silver and Data-Recency Bias
One more thought provoked by Nate Silver’s thought-provoking The Signal and the Noise.
Prediction vs. Scenario Planning: What’s Your Goal?
Nate Silver is not a household name in the scenario-planning world, not yet anyhow. But FSG partner Patrick Marren has discovered in Silver’s writings a lot of rich fodder for scenario thought, of interest to strategists, planners and risk managers.
Why Scenario-Based Planning Beats Prediction
Scenario consultants have an advantage over single-point forecasters like Nate Silver: we’re not restricted to single point forecasts.
Foxy Hedgehogs: “The Signal and the Noise”
Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise makes a darned good case for scenario-based strategic planning…
Breaking New Scenario-Planning Ground with the USCG
In late September, FSG facilitated a three-day scenario-planning workshop in Westminster, MD as part of the U.S. Coast Guard’s Project Evergreen long-range planning process.
400-Word Scenario #7: No More Newspapers
Print newspapers seem to be going away. What happens when they do? It's not all about ink and paper.
400-Word Scenario #6: Prisoners’ Dilemma Nation
Ladies and gentlemen, I have 400 words of bad news: we may look back on 2012 as “the good old days of political cooperation.”
Scenario Consultants’ Wisdom
Since re-launching our website earlier this year, FSG has been steadily building up content that sheds light on some of the biggest things we have learned over more than 20 years working together as scenario consultants for some of the most dynamic enterprises in the world.
Experts Are the Worst Forecasters
After decades of trying to help clients anticipate the widest range of plausible possible future events, the following quote rings quite true to us: “Those who know more forecast very slightly better than those who know less. But those with the most knowledge are often least reliable.”
Scenario Planning and Truth
The essential value of scenario planning is not just about constructing cool futuristic stories to “get the client thinking outside the box.”