What's ahead for the US after the 2020 election and beyond? Prediction is perilous. But FSG has collaborated on a set of short-term scenarios that suggest several plausible paths ahead for US politics, policy and the economy.
This is the second of two pieces about demography, focusing on another aspect, less to do with the population’s overall size than with its structure - specifically the changing composition by age group....
There’s actually less volatility in the polls than you might think.
Virtually everything about election polls is anathema to scenario planners. Pollsters are concerned with the short term, and however much their reports are hedged, present a false precision to forecasts of uncertain outcomes. They have also been famously wrong, and are likely to become less and less reliable as response rates continue to fall. And yet, so extraordinary...
